A confidence number about our assistant came from a template, not from the assistant.

93 forecast rows from one template, all at 60%

Didn't work

What we did

Our system reported that the assistant was under-confident: right far more often than its stated confidence. We traced every row behind that claim.

What we found

All 93 rows came from one template line with a fixed 60%. The assistant never stated them. Its own forecasts since October 2: 10 right out of 18, at 68% stated on average.

What it means

Eighteen forecasts is too few to say whether it runs over- or under-confident. We struck the old number and say "we don't know yet".

Source: Forecast audit, October 14, 2026.